00100	Mr. James J. Kilpatrick
00200	
00300	Dear Mr. Kilpatrick:
00400	
00500	\J	We met at Professor Juilland's house when you lectured
00600	at Stanford, but unless you have a better memory than I have,
00700	you won't remember me.  This letter concerns your column of
00800	May 25 (Palo Alto Times) in which you favorably review a
00900	book prophesying doom.  I was somewhat surprised at this,
01000	because I had imagined that such gloomy views were mainly
01100	connected with liberal ideology.
01200	
01300	 	Until I read the book, I can't answer its arguments
01400	fully, but I would like to advance some arguments against the
01600	idea that the complexity of our industrial civilization makes
01700	it susceptible to the pyramiding of accidental disasters.
01800	I would hope to relieve your worry somewhat, and I would be
01900	curious to know whether it does, because I am writing a book
02000	on what should be invented and would like to know more about
02100	how intelligent, non-technical minds respond to the arguments.
02200	I should remark that ideology drives people to write these
02300	gloomy books, and most of us who are complacent about these
02400	matters are not impelled to write.
02500	
02600		Our civilization is less susceptible to any kind of
02700	disaster than any previous one for several reasons:
02800	
02900		1. \F2The fraction of the population whose labor is
03000	essential for the survival of the population keeps declining.\F0
03100	The labor that was formally done by the wagon driver is now
03200	divided between the truck driver and the man who builds trucks
03300	and roads.  However, the latter men can leave their jobs for
03400	extensive periods without immediate effects on survival.  A
03500	large fraction of youth which formerly worked to maintain
03600	society on a day-to-day basis are in college where they
03700	constitute an emergency labor reserve.
03800	
03900		2. \F2Working hours have been reduced to the point where
04000	they can be doubled in an emergency.\F0
04100	
04200		3. \F2There is great redundancy in the transportation
04300	system\F0.  Chicago could be evacuated in less than a day
04400	in its inhabitants' cars and in three days by operating the
04500	nation's commercial airliners around the clock.
04600	
04700		4. \F2Our habitual consumption of food, electriciy,
04800	and fuel is so high that it can be cut in half for extensive
04900	periods with only inconvenience\F0.
05000	
05100		5. \F2Unless disaster hits the whole country simultaneously,
05200	telephone repairmen, electric system repair crews, firemen, and
05300	police can be rushed into a disaster area on short notice\F0.
05400	This is commonly done in case of floo?s and earthquakes.
05500	
05600		6. \F2The communication system - telephone, radio, TV,
05700	and n?wspapers can quickly inform people abouπ what has to be
05800	done.\F0  The telephone system doesn't even depend on electric
05900	company for emergency power.
06000	
06100		7. \F2The American people trust their elected leaders
06200	well enough to accept direction in emergencies\F0.  People
06300	have always behaved well in localized disasters.
06400	
06500		8. \F2The Office of Emergency Preparedness is a national
06600	disaster handling organization\F0.  It suOfers from lack of
06700	practice since disasters have be getting smaller and more
06800	readily handled locally.
06900	
07000		As to the postulated Chicago disaster, one can say the
07100	following:
07200	
07300		1. The 1965 electrical failure knocked out power for
07400	hours not weeks.  The casualties were trivial, and the system
07500	has been improved so that it isn't likely to recur.
07600	
07700		2. 20% of Chicago's electricity is nuclear, and nuclear
07800	plants require refueling only every two years.  20% will keep up
07900	essential services.
08000	
08100		3. Individual power lines go down all the time without
08200	disaster to the system.
08300	
08400		4. Chicago is not so dependent on rail transportation
08500	that a rail strike would produce transportation jams that would
08600	strangle the city.  At least rail strikes have never produced
08700	such effects in the past.  The number of highway lanes into
08800	Chicago per unit population has steadily increased.  Moreover,
08900	more than half the working population of Chicago could be
09000	furloughed from their jobs in emergency without loss of essential
09100	services.
09200	
09300		5. American rats are few and healthy, and bubonic plague
09400	is a bacterial disease that responds to penicillin.
09500	
09600		I hope you will think about it and reassure your readers
09700	if you find that you conscientiously can.  While people don't
09800	panic from individual doomsaying articles, they do contribute
09900	to the atmosphere that nourishes paranoid politics.
10000	
10100					Sincerely yours,
10200	
10300	
10400					John McCarthy
10500					Professor of Computer Science